Mountain forests on the western edge of the Sichuan Basin are challenging to monitor at high resolution because rugged topography, cloud cover, and Landsat-7 SLC-off artifacts create data gaps, while the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and subsequent restoration further alter vegetation dynamics. We fused Landsat 5/7/8/9 surface reflectance with MODIS MOD13Q1 using an index-then-fusion STARFM framework to reconstruct a continuous 30 m NDVI record for 2000–2024 and quantified forest fraction dynamics using annual forest/non-forest maps, transition analysis, and K-means clustering of pixel-wise NDVI trajectories. To identify dominant controls, we applied a multi-output random forest with spatial block cross-validation and SHAP attribution. The fused NDVI agrees well with MODIS across 100,000 samples (R2 = 0.953; RMSE = 0.032), and the regional mean NDVI increased from 0.711 (2000) to 0.774 (2024), showing a post-2008 decline–stagnation–recovery pattern. Forest fraction rose from 48.2% to 72.9%, with accelerated gains after 2010 (+21.4%), and improving trajectories dominated (70.95%), concentrating near the Longmenshan fault zone. The driver model generalized well (micro-mean R2 = 0.875), and SHAP ranked elevation (32.6%) and initial forest fraction (32.3%) above temperature and precipitation. These results provide high-resolution evidence of mountain forest change and its primary controls to support terrain-informed ecological management.
Li et al. (Fri,) studied this question.