The current stage of development of the Russian economy is accompanied by fundamental changes in the innovation sphere. The processes of obtaining new knowledge and technologies and their effective use to improve the level of socio-economic development of the country largely determine its significance and place on the world stage and play an important role in ensuring national security. However, at the stage of technical preparation for the implementation of innovative projects, not all entities and not always can correctly determine the potential prospects and dynamics of transformations. This indicates the relevance of the topic of scientific research. The current practice of organizing technical preparation of innovative projects is often accompanied by various kinds of errors. The most significant of them are associated with incorrect estimates of the timing of individual stages of the project, a low level of communication between its potential participants and insufficient elaboration of various options for its implementation. The consequence of this state of affairs is obviously incorrect estimates of the dynamics of external and internal environmental factors, insufficient consideration of the physical and cost volumes of material and technical support, a low level of preparation of pre-project and project justifications for the implementation of innovative projects. These and a number of other circumstances entail a decrease in the effectiveness of investments in the innovative sector of the real economy. The authors believe that the use of probabilistic planning methods will increase the level of interaction between all investors and performers, and will also help to better assess innovation risks taking into account the project implementation timeframes. It is proposed to make a decision on choosing a project option for its further implementation using probabilistic planning and game theory methods.
Slavyanov et al. (Wed,) studied this question.