The northeast monsoon prevailing over southeastern China in late seasons, generally from October to March, frequently generates water level anomalies upstream of the Taiwan Strait (TWS) that reach the coastal waters of Guangdong in South China, and, with compounding astronomical high tides, elevate coastal flood risk over the region. The risk of coastal flooding or sea inundation is further heightened when monsoon forcing co-occurs with storm surge brought by late-season tropical cyclones (TCs). This study integrates tide gauge observations from Hong Kong (HK) and its vicinity together with Delft3D Flexible Mesh simulations to diagnose a tide-modulated anomaly wave mechanism. Observations show that anomalies originating in or near TWS arrive in HK with station-dependent phasing. These water level anomalies exhibit a characteristic ~6 h periodicity west of the Taiwan Shoal, and display peaks that systematically align with the astronomical high tide. Time–frequency analysis reveals a wave period transformation from ~12 h north of Dongshandao over the coast of southeastern China to ~6 h west of the Taiwan Shoal. We test the hypothesis that wind-forced water anomalies generated in or near TWS undergo shoal-modulated nonlinear tide–wind interaction and tidal-current advection that transform their dominant period and phase-lock them to the tide, producing four anomaly peaks per day downstream and station-dependent phasing in HK. Hindcasts of the November 2024 monsoon episode reproduce the observed timing, periodicity, and spatial transition, while constituent experiments demonstrate that semi-diurnal forcing entering via the TWS is the primary driver of the ~6 h signal, with the Taiwan Shoal acting as the modulation locus. Accurate water level forecasts for the Guangdong coast, therefore, need to incorporate upstream wind forcing over the TWS and bathymetric controls around the Taiwan Shoal, with practical implications for compound flood risk during spring tides and co-occurring monsoon and/or TC events.
Cheung et al. (Fri,) studied this question.