Even some countries, including Northern European countries, which are democracies with well-developed low-fertility policies and significant progress in gender equality, have experienced a decline in fertility rates since around 2010. These trends highlight the role of political systems in addressing low fertility. Understanding whether democracies effectively promote low-fertility policies is essential for informing policies. This study examined whether democracies enhance the effectiveness of low-fertility policies. Specifically, it investigated whether the relationship between public spending ratio on family benefits —a proxy variable for low fertility policies—and total fertility rates differs depending on the degree of democratization among groups and regions. Using panel data for OECD 38 countries from 2010 to 2021, they were categorized into two groups based on their democratization levels. The impact of the family benefits public spending ratio on fertility rates was evaluated across these groups. Additionally, each country was categorized into regional blocs. Based on the interaction term of these regions and the ratio, the differences in the effectiveness of the policies across the regions were examined. The analysis found that, in contexts where democratization was limited, the public spending ratio on family benefits did not increase fertility rates. In contrast, in more democratized contexts, significant effects were observed, suggesting that a higher degree of democratization enhances the efficacy of low-fertility policies. The background of these findings may lie in the fact that democracies foster a supportive environment for effective policies. This may be due to greater political trust, gender equality and universal spending, which enhances citizen satisfaction.
Mikito Masuda (Thu,) studied this question.