As the global imperative for climate neutrality intensifies, hydrogen (H2) from fossil fuels remains central to decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors. Conventional production via steam methane reforming (SMR), however, is carbon-intensive and, even with carbon capture and storage (CCS), incurs energy penalties and long-term storage constraints. This review develops a harmonized well-to-gate, market-oriented framework to evaluate methane pyrolysis (MP) relative to SMR and autothermal reforming (ATR), with or without CCS, moving beyond reactor-focused assessments toward system-level commercialization analysis. MP decomposes methane into hydrogen and solid carbon, avoiding direct CO2 formation and the need for CCS infrastructure. Integrating with the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction enables flexible syngas production with adjustable H2: CO ratios for methanol and chemical synthesis. A central finding is the dominant role of the “carbon lever”: MP generates approximately 3 kg of solid carbon per kg of H2, making the carbon market’s absorptive capacity the primary scalability constraint. While carbon monetization can reduce levelized hydrogen costs, large-scale deployment would rapidly saturate existing carbon black and specialty carbon markets. Techno-economic evidence indicates that carbon prices above 500/ton are required to achieve parity with gray hydrogen, whereas 150–200/ton enables competitiveness with blue hydrogen. Lifecycle assessments further show that climate superiority over SMR or ATR with CCS requires upstream methane leakage below 0. 5% and very low-carbon electricity. Commercial readiness varies, with plasma MP at TRL 8–9 and thermal, catalytic, and molten-media pathways remaining at the pilot or demonstration stage. Parametric decision-space analysis under harmonized boundary assumptions shows that MP is not a universal substitute for reforming but a conditional pathway competitive only under aligned conditions of low-leakage gas supply, low-carbon electricity, credible carbon monetization, and supportive policy incentives. The review concludes with a roadmap that highlights standardized carbon certification, end-of-life accounting, and long-duration operational data as priorities for commercialization.
Musa et al. (Thu,) studied this question.