Xinjiang, China Drought propagation poses a major threat to water resources and agricultural security. This study aims to clarify the propagation mechanisms from meteorological to agricultural drought in Xinjiang. Standardized drought indices were computed using precipitation and soil moisture data from 73 stations. An integrated methodology combining run theory, Mann-Kendall trend test, wavelet analysis, Copula functions, and Bayesian network models was employed to quantify propagation characteristics, including matching ratios, response probabilities, and trigger thresholds. Drought propagation in Xinjiang exhibits pronounced spatial heterogeneity. The meteorological-agricultural drought matching ratio ranges from 0.45 – 0.87, with meteorological droughts being 1.1 times longer and 1.3 times more intense than agricultural droughts. A clear north-south divergence exists: northern Xinjiang experiences shorter drought cycles (8–16 months), while southern Xinjiang suffers from longer, more severe cycles (32–64 months). For short-term droughts (1–4 months), the probability of agricultural drought response exceeds 60%. However, southern border regions show higher susceptibility to mild meteorological drought but greater resilience to moderate and extreme events. The meteorological drought threshold required to trigger agricultural drought is lower in southern Xinjiang (−2.44 to −1.04), indicating a region-specific propagation sensitivity. These findings provide a quantitative basis for improving drought early warning systems and adaptation strategies in arid regions. • Meteorological droughts in Xinjiang are more severe than agricultural droughts. • Agricultural droughts in Xinjiang occur more frequently than meteorological ones. • Droughts in Southern Xinjiang have longer durations than in Northern Xinjiang. • Southern Xinjiang has lower meteorological drought propagation thresholds for agricultural droughts than Northern Xinjiang.
Xu et al. (Thu,) studied this question.