This paper introduces the Conditional Consequence Mapping Model (CCMM), a probabilistic framework for evaluating historically marginalised predictive texts against geopolitical outcomes. Applied to the quatrains of Michel de Nostredame (Nostradamus, 1503-1566), the framework departs fundamentally from conventional retrospective interpretation by establishing falsifiable conditional branches with pre-assigned probability weights, observable confirmation markers, and a novel Quatrain Convergence Score (QCS) derived from forensic analysis of the original 1555 Lyon edition French text. The model was constructed and documented prior to the commencement of hostilities between the United States, Israel, and Iran beginning 28 February 2026. Subsequent live event verification against three primary quatrains (Century II:62, Century III:61, and Century I:70) yielded an originally reported Day 6 QCS of 82.1% for the primary quatrain against confirmed events as of 6 March 2026; under the corrected six-term, 120-point denominator used in this revised edition, the recalculated Day 6 QCS is 83.3%. This revised edition updates verification through Day 28 (28 March 2026), with a revised QCS of 87.5% for Century II:62, reflecting additional confirming events across the defaite and vengeance dimensions. Century III:61 has advanced from 26% to 32% (pending activation), and Century I:70 has advanced from 55% to 65% (building, with partial activation of the Gaule and secret augure branches). A null model demonstrates that the QCS of 87.5% lies approximately 8.5 standard deviations above the mean score achieved by randomly selected quatrains scored against the same events. The paper argues that the intellectual contribution is not a claim of prophetic validity, but a methodological demonstration that rigorous probabilistic modelling applied to any dismissed or marginalised predictive corpus generates analytically useful intelligence about catastrophic event trajectories, even when the prior probability of realisation approaches 0.001%. Since the original SSRN submission, the CCMM framework has been applied to three additional operational domains: financial crime investigation (Volume 1 Technical Investigation Manual), homicide and serious crime investigation (Volume 2), and critical infrastructure cyber security (CCMM Cyber Framework, Stage 1 Architecture and Stage 2A Technical Specification). Cross-domain application supports the view that the analytical discipline of the framework, rather than any property of the Nostradamus corpus specifically, is the source of its utility.
Prasanna Abeysekera (Sat,) studied this question.