What question did this study set out to answer?

The aim is to evaluate existing models for estimating lost earning capacity and their shortcomings in forensic analysis.

April 5, 2026

Developing a Reliable and Valid Process for Estimating Post-Injury Earning Capacity: Part I (the Problem)

MBMary Barros-BaileyIntermountain Healthcare FSFrank SlesnickBellarmine University BABryan Austin

Key Points

The aim is to evaluate existing models for estimating lost earning capacity and their shortcomings in forensic analysis.
Review of existing models for earning capacity analysis in the U.S. and internationally.
Examination of methodologies used by vocational experts and forensic experts.
Identification of biases and limitations in current procedures.
Analysis reveals significant drawbacks in existing earning capacity models.
Current methodologies lack components that ensure precision and minimize bias.
A framework for future models is proposed to improve accuracy in estimates.

Abstract

In forensics, arriving at opinions of lost earning capacity is one of the most important aspects of specific damage analysis proffered by a vocational expert (VE) and calculated by a forensic expert (FE). For about four decades, models have been developed of what to include in such an analysis. This article is the first in a two-part series examining existing models and procedures used in the United States and internationally of how to arrive at a fair and precise conclusion of earning capacity, as well as the drawbacks of present analyses. In Part II, the authors will introduce a new model with components absent from present models to maximize precision and minimize bias in the process of assessing lost earning capacity.

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