Power system blackouts represent typical manifestations of instability in complex systems, whose evolution often exhibits non-stationarity, long-range correlations, and nonlinear scaling behavior. Most reliability assessment methods widely used in engineering practice are built on the core assumptions of event independence and light-tailed distribution, which will inevitably lead to systematic underestimation of extreme tail risks when blackouts actually present long-range memory and power-law heavy-tailed characteristics. Based on long-cycle historical blackout records of China’s power grid spanning 1981–2025, this paper develops an integrated framework combining Self-Organized Criticality (SOC) theory, Hurst exponent analysis, symbolic time-series methods, and Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MFDFA). This study systematically characterizes the evolution law and inherent dependence structure of blackout events from four dimensions: statistical scaling, temporal correlation, nonlinear structure, and multi-scale fractal spectrum. The results show that both the load-loss magnitudes and inter-event intervals of blackouts follow strict power-law distributions, with the system exhibiting scaling behavior consistent with SOC theory. The blackout event sequence presents significant long-range positive correlation and self-similarity, confirming a persistent long-term memory effect in the system evolution. Symbolic analysis further reveals the nonlinear fluctuation patterns and burst clustering behavior of the blackout process, reflecting the intermittency and complexity of blackout risks. MFDFA results verify that the blackout sequence has a broad-spectrum multifractal structure across different temporal scales, and Monte Carlo shuffle tests demonstrate that this multifractality mainly arises from intrinsic long-range temporal correlations, rather than being driven solely by heavy-tailed distribution. This study confirms that blackouts in China’s power grid are not random independent events, but present fractal statistical characteristics consistent with the self-organized critical mechanism. The findings provide a novel fractal perspective and quantitative framework for the statistical characterization, operational security assessment, and multi-scale early-warning modeling of blackout risks in China’s large-scale power systems.
Yu et al. (Fri,) studied this question.