Objective: To identify the main determinants of per capita expenditure in the Brazilian State Judiciary and its composition between 2015 and 2021, considering the 26 states and the Federal District. Method: The research employed an econometric panel data model with Random Effects (RE), analyzing the relationship between internal (structural) and external (socioeconomic) variables of the judicial system over seven years (189 observations). Results: The findings indicate that expenditures are predominantly driven by the state's fiscal capacity (Net Current Revenue) and by the rigidity of the personnel structure, which accounts for 89% of resources. Notably, the volume of pending cases—used as a proxy for social demand—did not show a statistically significant relationship with expenditures. In light of Contingency Theory, these results reveal a bureaucratic structure with limited adaptability to environmental pressures, whose fixed costs do not respond to changes in the demand for judicial services. Originality/Relevance: The originality of the study lies in the integrated analysis of internal factors (organizational structure) and external factors (socioeconomic context), surpassing the segmented approach of prior literature to explain the dynamics of judicial expenditures. Contributions: As a contribution, the research demonstrates that performance improvement policies focused solely on personnel expansion are financially unsustainable and ineffective in reducing case backlogs, suggesting the need to direct investments toward management optimization and technology.
Pereira et al. (Fri,) studied this question.