Climate impacts apple pollination, yield and economic outcomes of farmers

Animal-mediated pollination is crucial to global food production but is increasingly threatened by environmental degradation, habitat loss and climate change. The extent to which temperature affects pollination services and crop yields is poorly understood. Using standardised monitoring in 33 apple orchards across Europe and Northern Africa over two years, this study assessed how ambient temperature affects flower visitors, fruit set, fruit quality and economic outcomes. Observation-time warm temperatures increased pollinator abundance, particularly of honey bees, while long-term mean annual temperatures enhanced pollination services for apple weight. Apple yield and the economic benefits to farmers increase with temperature, while the role of pollinators decreases along the climatic long-term mean annual temperature. These important findings suggest that another process may be at play beyond animal-mediated pollination. It was hypothesised that wind-mediated pollination may occur preferentially in Mediterranean regions, where farmers adapt their management strategies to benefit from this service. These results highlight the effects of climate change on agricultural production, the economic outcomes of farmers and food security and emphasise the need for climate-resilient strategies to support animal-mediated pollination and other ecosystem services. • Climate dependence of crop pollination remains poorly understood • Flower visitors, especially honey bees, are more abundant in warm local temperatures • Economic benefits increase with temperature, but the role of pollinators decreases • Wind-mediated pollination and orchard management practices may support apple yield • Findings highlight need for climate-resilient strategies in agriculture