Rail trespassing remains a persistent safety challenge at the system level in the United States, with a 24% increase in incidents within the last decade (2016–2025). Identifying hotspots proactively is difficult due to limited incident data and strong spatial dependencies within the built environment. This study thus creates a ZIP-code–level geospatial analytics framework to identify current and emerging trespassing hotspots across North Carolina by combining land-use composition, rail exposure metrics, and historical Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) trespassing records. Geospatial layers were integrated within a GIS workflow to derive attributes such as rail miles, grade crossings, population density, and land-use types. Exploratory spatial analysis showed significant clustering of trespassing incidents, with Global Moran’s I indicating positive spatial autocorrelation across multiple neighborhood sizes. Permutation z-scores confirmed non-random hotspot formation along major rail corridors. A k-means clustering method also identified four structural risk environments, and a Composite Risk Index (CRI) was developed from weighted, standardized exposure and land-use variables to quantify latent risk, independent of raw casualty counts. Results indicate that clusters characterized by higher rail infrastructure exposure and mixed land-use environments exhibit the highest CRI values and elevated hotspot probabilities. In contrast, clusters with limited rail infrastructure, including predominantly commercial and rural ZIP codes, show substantially lower risk levels. The findings highlight that trespassing risk is more strongly associated with structural exposure conditions than with isolated historical incident counts. The resulting risk surfaces and hotspots provide an interpretable and scalable framework for statewide safety planning, early hotspot detection, and targeted interventions by transportation agencies.
Mohammed et al. (Fri,) studied this question.