Deep disadvantage in mortality on the frontlines of the COVID-19 pandemic

This study presents new evidence on the temporal and spatial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality among especially vulnerable New Yorkers. Using burial records from Hart Island—the City’s potter’s field—we study the distribution of unclaimed deaths over time and across boroughs in 2020 compared to pre-pandemic levels. We show that the Hart Island deaths began deviating from their historical pattern in early March 2020 and peaked five weeks later at 22 deaths for every death in the same week in 2019 (20:1 adjusted). COVID-19 excess death rates were more than twice as high in the Bronx compared to other boroughs. Citywide, we estimate that 10% of all COVID-related excess deaths during the initial outbreak (March–August 2020) were unclaimed. These findings suggest the pandemic greatly magnified existing inequalities in the City and, more broadly, illustrate the especially devastating impact of COVID-19 on economically and socially vulnerable populations.