Purpose This study aims to provide an empirical analysis of bid protest outcomes to the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) to identify which protest types, firm characteristics and contract features predict success in federal procurement disputes. The authors address a significant gap in the literature, which has focused primarily on protest initiation rather than success determinants across different firm sizes and protest categories. Design/methodology/approach The authors analyze 2,825 GAO decisions between 2019 and 2023, using logistic regression models to test three hypotheses regarding firm size effects, solicitation protests and evaluation challenges. The models control for agency type, contract features and contractor characteristics to isolate key success predictors. Findings Success rates varied significantly across agencies (1%–13%) and protest types. Procedural protests, especially those targeting solicitation terms, were most likely to succeed, while protests challenging evaluation decisions showed mixed results. Disadvantaged firms faced significantly lower success rates, supporting the size hypothesis. Technical evaluations substantially reduced success likelihood, and exclusion-based protests were particularly unsuccessful. Social implications These findings can help in the design and execution of a more efficient government contracting process which will result in cost savings and the improved delivery of public services. Originality/value The findings challenge assumptions about protest effectiveness and provide actionable insights for contractors, policymakers and procurement professionals. The findings offer insights for both contractors and awarding agencies from an empirical analysis conditioned on actual filing.
Ferris et al. (Thu,) studied this question.