Reciprocal growth and spatial spillover: From the perspective of agricultural trade competitiveness in countries along the BRI route

Based on the cross-country panel data from 2007 to 2024, this study employs the entropy weight model, PSM-DID method, DID spatial model, and Geographical and Temporal Weighted Regression (GTWR) Model to evaluate how the "Belt and Road" initiative (BRI) enhances the agricultural trade competitiveness of countries along the route. The results show that (1) the BRI significantly increases agricultural trade competitiveness at the national and product levels; (2) it affects agricultural trade competitiveness through enhancing technology level, improving infrastructure, and reducing trade costs; (3) the impact of the BRI shows variety, specially, countries with high credit use levels, low economic development levels and institutional quality, and low climate physical risk have a stronger impact; (4) the DID Spatial Durbin Model verifies the prominent spatial spillover effect of the BRI, and the GTWR model tests the spatial distribution of regression among regions. These findings provide empirical evidence for the positive impact of the BRI from the perspective of reciprocal growth, and offer a new insight to promote the high-quality development of the BRI from the perspective of spatial spillover. • BRI significantly boosts national and product-level agricultural trade competitiveness; • Technology, infrastructure upgrades, and trade cost reductions are key mechanisms; • BRI generates significant positive spatial spillovers to non-BRI countries; • GTWR reveals that the BRI gradually reduces spatial inequality in agricultural trade.