This study conducts a comparative analysis of self-evacuation processes in response to fluvial flood threats in two European regions: the Dolnośląskie Voivodeship in Poland and the federal state of Nordrhein-Westfalen in Germany. Focusing on preemptive, car-based evacuations, the research employs scenario analysis and spatial modeling to assess the effectiveness, preparedness, and outcomes of self-evacuation strategies. Utilizing the enhanced two-step floating catchment area method, the study evaluates the spatial accessibility of designated public facilities—especially schools—serving as potential evacuation destinations. The analysis considers travel times, facility capacities, and population distributions within 100-year flood zones. Findings reveal significant spatial disparities in evacuation accessibility and highlight the critical role of private vehicle ownership and infrastructure in emergency preparedness. Across the scenarios, the results demonstrate a clear trade-off between evacuation speed and utilization of shelter capacity: options that minimize travel times tend to overload a small number of well-connected facilities, whereas more balanced use of available capacity requires accepting longer travel times for many residents. The study underscores the necessity for integrated evacuation planning that accounts for regional behaviors, infrastructural capacities, and spatial accessibility to enhance flood-risk management.
Borowska-Stefańska et al. (Thu,) studied this question.