Interdisciplinary approaches for risk assessment and risk communication regarding highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) in British Columbia and the Yukon, Canada

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is a disease of significant global concern affecting wildlife, livestock, and humans, with limited options for prevention and control. Risk assessment and communication are crucial to HPAI management. This dissertation evaluates various pathways that shape our understanding of these facets, ultimately informing monitoring, mitigation, and management of this virus in the Pacific Americas Flyway of Canada. Data from wildlife-focused avian influenza virus (AIV) surveillance programs in British Columbia (B.C.) and the Yukon, Canada, were used to examine the spatiotemporal and phylogenetic dynamics of two HPAI outbreak waves that occurred between April 2022 and May 2023. A quasi-experimental field study using environmental AIV genomics was conducted to assess the risk of environmental AIV contamination related to wetland baiting for waterfowl banding. To improve understanding of smallholder poultry producers’ perceptions and beliefs regarding HPAI and biosecurity measures to mitigate their exposure risk, a qualitative study guided by the Health Belief Model was carried out. A large language model (BERTopic) was employed to identify the main conversations about AIV and HPAI on Twitter from January 2022 to April 2023 to better understand public discourse and enhance communication with producers and the public. Findings indicate that genomics-based AIV surveillance in wildlife can provide broad spatiotemporal insights into risk during outbreaks, with genomic diversity evolving rapidly across space and time. This information supports more tailored risk communications with poultry producers. Anthropogenic alteration of wild bird ecology through wetland baiting for waterfowl increased the odds of AIV detection, highlighting the importance of cost-benefit analyses when making conservation and disease management decisions. Trust-building and tailored information, including the rationale behind recommendations, are essential to help smallholder poultry producers implement effective biosecurity practices. On social media platforms like Twitter, wide-ranging and context-dependent AIV-related discourse exists, which should be considered when scientists and officials use these channels for outreach. The interdisciplinary approaches in this dissertation emphasize the importance of using complexity theory for HPAI risk assessment and risk communication now and into the future, rather than relying on isolated approaches that focus solely on wildlife, domestic animals, humans, or the environment.