Regional sustainable development requires integrated assessments that capture ecosystem function, risk exposure, and recovery capacity. Conventional two-dimensional frameworks based on ecosystem services (ESs) and landscape ecological risk (ERI) often overlook the self-regulation potential of ecosystems following disturbance. This study proposes that incorporating RES as a third zoning dimension enables functional differentiation between areas that share similar ES–ERI profiles but differ substantially in recovery capacity, thereby revealing management priorities that a conventional two-dimensional framework cannot detect. This study develops a three-dimensional zoning framework integrating ES, ERI, and ecological resilience (RES) in the main urban area of Ganzhou City, a representative hilly city in southern China. Land-use dynamics from 1990 to 2020 and under four 2050 scenarios were simulated using a coupled PLUS-InVEST approach. Differentiated ecological zones were delineated, and the optimal-parameter geographic detector (OPGD) was applied to examine driving factor interactions. Results indicate that cultivated land and forestland dominated the study area throughout the period. ES supply remained favorable with stage-wise fluctuations, while ERI showed progressive convergence of high-risk patches toward the central basin. RES exhibited a sharp decline in higher-resilience areas during 1990–2000 (91.0%), followed by partial recovery during 2010–2020 (47.3%). The three-dimensional zoning delineated 35.9% of the area as Ecological control zones that may require priority intervention. Driver analysis revealed that DEM, precipitation, and river proximity, along with their interactions, strongly influenced regional ecological patterns. The proposed framework extends conventional ES-ERI assessments and provides spatial guidance for differentiated ecological management in hilly regions.
Zhang et al. (Thu,) studied this question.