Abstract Red wine quality is heavily influenced by polyphenols, with anthocyanins being the pigments central to its vibrant colour. Among these, malvidin-3-glucoside (M3G) and related pigments are particularly important. As polyphenols like M3G are extracted from grape solids during fermentation, reliable control of this process is essential for wine quality management. Process control systems (PCS) are widely used to enhance efficiency and product quality in many industries, but their limited adoption in winemaking presents a significant opportunity for technological advancement based on monitoring and simulation. This study addressed a crucial component, that of accurate mathematical modelling of process phenomena, by developing and validating a general two-step kinetic model to describe M3G extraction during and after fermentation. The model incorporated both extraction and formation of pigmented monomers, achieving coefficients of determination ( R 2 ) > 0.85 when evaluated against previously published data. This model can be reduced to a simplified one-step form which captures extraction before reaction, incorporating the influence of ethanol, fermentable sugar, temperature, and mixing rate. Evaluation across all test conditions showed high concordance with published experimental data, yielding R 2 > 0.97 and RMSE < 2.67. Both models were computationally efficient and accurately replicated real-world dynamics, offering a practical foundation for integration with digital PCS. By enabling real-time monitoring and control, these models have the potential to optimise polyphenol extraction during fermentation, improve consistency in red wine quality, and advance automation in winery production processes.
Unterkofler et al. (Fri,) studied this question.