Significant Land Cover Transitions and Regional Acceleration at the Continental Scale of Africa over the Last Four Decades

Land cover (LC) change is reshaping terrestrial ecosystems and profoundly impacting sustainable development in Africa, yet the long-term, continental-scale spatiotemporal dynamics of these shifts remain obscured. To address the above issue, this study systematically explores the spatiotemporal dynamics of LC across Africa from 1985 to 2022 by leveraging the fine-resolution remote-sensing-derived GLCFCS30D LC dataset within a stratified Intensity Analysis framework. To decompose landscape changes into interval, category, and transition levels across five climatic sub-regions of Africa, we systematically evaluate the temporal consistency of land systems. This hierarchical approach disentangles systematic transition pathways from random fluctuations, thereby revealing the distinct regional regimes governing continental transformation of LC. Our results ultimately show a strong LC change acceleration in Africa after 2010, mainly in Southern, Eastern, and Western Africa, which together made up 80 to 90% of the continent’s LC dynamics. During the whole study period, shrubland and grassland had the highest gross turnover due to their high bidirectional volatility. Intensity-wise, forest remained inactive even though it was a persistent net loser to crop in East Africa (2010–2020), to shrub in Southern Africa (1990–2022), and to wetland in West Africa during the post-2000 intervals. Wetland had a major change in dynamics from historical growth during 1985–1990 to systematic decline in 2015–2022. Cropland increased by systematically targeting shrubland and grassland, mainly in East Africa. Additionally, the Sahel contributed 40% of continental grassland to bare area transitions, despite some recovery of grassland in the region. These findings show that aggregate net-change metrics obscure the volatility in African LC; therefore, distinct regional regimes such as agricultural expansion and forest degradation necessitate spatially differentiated management strategies.