Background: Pediatric horizontal distal metaphyseal tibial fractures are relatively uncommon injuries. While nonoperative treatment remains the standard of care for most cases, certain fracture patterns may carry a higher risk of treatment failure, and optimal treatment strategies are still unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate the frequency, anatomical location of these fractures within the metaphysis, and risk factors associated with treatment failure in nonoperative management. Methods: A retrospective, registry-based cohort study was conducted to evaluate treatment success in 86 consecutive pediatric patients with distal metaphyseal horizontal tibial fractures between 2014 and 2023. Demographic, clinical, and radiographic data were analyzed. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent predictors of nonoperative treatment failure. Nonoperative treatment failure was defined as the requirement for cast wedging, re-reduction, or surgical intervention due to loss of reduction or coronal angulation greater than 10° observed on final follow-up radiographs. Results: Of the 86 patients included, 70 (81%) were initially treated non-operatively, while 16 (19%) underwent primary surgical fixation. The overall failure rate in the nonoperative group was 35.3% (25/70). Multivariable logistic regression identified 3 independent predictors of treatment failure: age >11 years (adjusted odds ratio OR, 10.1; 95% confidence interval CI, 1.3–81.7; p = 0.030), the presence of a complete fibular fracture (adjusted OR, 6.1; 95% CI, 1.2–30.1; p = 0.027), and initial coronal angulation >10° (adjusted OR, 4.9; 95% CI, 1.1–23.0; p = 0.042). The complication rate was significantly higher in the operative group compared to the nonoperative group (18.3% vs. 4.3%; relative risk, 4.4; 95%CI 1.0–19.7, p = 0.042). Conclusions: Nonoperative treatment remains an effective approach for the majority of pediatric horizontal distal metaphyseal tibial fractures. However, patients with older age, concomitant complete fibular fractures, or marked initial angulation may benefit from early surgical intervention to mitigate the risk of treatment failure. Level of Evidence: IV
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