Fourier Neural Operator for Turbine Wake Flow Prediction with Out-of-Distribution Generalization

Amid the global transition to carbon neutrality, tidal current energy has become a strategic sustainable energy resource due to its high predictability, power density, and environmental compatibility. Horizontal-axis turbines show great potential for marine energy harvesting, yet the large-scale commercialization of tidal turbines is severely hindered by complex wake dynamics and the lack of reliable, efficient prediction tools for out-of-distribution (OOD) operating conditions. Traditional high-fidelity CFD methods are computationally prohibitive for engineering optimization, while conventional data-driven surrogate models suffer from poor extrapolation performance, extrapolation collapse near training parameter boundaries, and the absence of uncertainty quantification. To address these bottlenecks, this study focuses on the OOD extrapolation of wake flow prediction across tip speed ratio (TSR) distributions for a single horizontal-axis tidal turbine. A CFD-generated spatiotemporal benchmark dataset is constructed for comparative OOD evaluation across various TSR conditions with 9504 total samples. A novel physics-constrained Fourier neural operator framework named TSR-FNO is proposed to improve OOD generalization. The model integrates TSR–Lipschitz regularization to suppress extrapolation collapse and Monte Carlo Dropout to provide reliable uncertainty estimation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that the proposed method effectively reduces prediction error in unseen TSR regimes, mitigates performance degradation in far-field extrapolation, and produces well-calibrated uncertainty estimates consistent with actual prediction confidence. This work provides a data-driven surrogate modeling strategy for fast and reliable wake prediction on a common CFD-generated benchmark, supporting the efficient design, array layout optimization, and engineering deployment of tidal current energy systems.