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This study investigates the cognitive decline trajectories in elderly patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and identifies related risk factors.

April 16, 2026Open Access

Risk Factors and Annual Rates of Cognitive Decline in Elderly Mild Cognitive Impairment: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Key Points

This study investigates the cognitive decline trajectories in elderly patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and identifies related risk factors.
Conducted a retrospective cohort study with 500 elderly patients diagnosed with MCI.
Followed participants for a median of 36 months to observe cognitive decline.
Applied multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression to identify risk factors for progression to dementia.
Calculated annual rates of cognitive decline using SLUMS and MoCA scores.
15.6% of participants progressed to dementia during the follow-up period.
Mean annual rate of cognitive decline was 0.8 points per year for SLUMS and 0.7 points per year for MoCA.
Specific cognitive domains showed a mean decline of 1.2 in RAVLT and 0.3 in CDT scores annually.
Older age, male sex, lower education, and hypertension are associated with faster cognitive decline.

Abstract

Mingyang Liu, Zhihua Hao, Jing Chen Key Laboratory of Basic Theory of Traditional Chinese Medicine in Heilongjiang Province, Heilongjiang University of Chinese Medicine, Harbin, Heilongjiang, Peopleâs Republic of ChinaCorrespondence: Jing Chen, Key Laboratory of Basic Theory of Traditional Chinese Medicine in Heilongjiang Province, Heilongjiang University of Chinese Medicine, No. 24, Heping Road, Xiangfang District, Harbin, Heilongjiang, 150040, Peopleâs Republic of China, Email chengjing16385@163.comObjective: To investigate the cognitive decline trajectories in elderly patients with MCI and identify related risk factors.Methods: This retrospective cohort study included 500 elderly patients diagnosed with MCI at our hospital between January 2021 and December 2024, with median follow-up of 36 months (IQR 24â 48). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to identify risk factors associated with progression from MCI to dementia. Annual rate of cognitive decline was calculated as (final score â baseline score) divided by follow-up duration in years; multivariable linear regression was used to identify associated factors.Results: During follow-up, 78 participants (15.6%) progressed to dementia. The mean annual rate of decline in SLUMS score was 0.8 points per year (95% CI: 0.6, 1.0, p < 0.001), and the mean annual rate of decline in MoCA score was 0.7 points per year (95% CI: 0.5, 0.9, p < 0.001). For specific cognitive domains, the mean annual rate of decline in RAVLT score was 1.2 (95% CI: 0.9, 1.5, p < 0.001), and the mean annual rate of decline in CDT score was 0.3 (95% CI: 0.2, 0.4, p = 0.002).Conclusion: These findings associate older age, male sex, lower education, hypertension, and lower baseline SLUMS with faster cognitive decline in elderly MCI patients. Early risk stratification may inform intervention strategies, though causal inferences are limited. Prospective validation is needed.Keywords: mild cognitive impairment, MCI, cognitive decline trajectories, risk factors, elderly patients, early intervention, dementia prevention

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Cite This Study

Liu et al. (Wed,) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69e07bc12f7e8953b7cbd5e1 https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.2147/ndt.s600786

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