In recent years, numerous studies have suggested that spring Arctic stratospheric ozone (ASO) variability has significant impacts on Northern Hemisphere climate. Accurate prediction of spring ASO changes is of great importance for improving the skill of short-term climate forecasts in the Northern Hemisphere. Using ERA5 and MERRA-2 reanalysis data during 1979/80–2023/24, this study investigates the cross-seasonal relationship between the winter Arctic stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) in winter and springtime ASO variability. We demonstrate that distinct SPV variability modes exert different influences on spring ASO. Variations in SPV intensity are significantly and negatively correlated with a meridional dipole pattern of spring ozone, whereas SPV displacement is significantly and negatively correlated with the zonal pattern of ozone. These relationships are robust on both interannual and interdecadal time scales, indicating persistent cross-seasonal coupling between the winter SPV and springtime ASO. Mechanistic analyses reveal that SPV intensity primarily modulates the meridional ozone distribution through chemical–radiative feedbacks, while SPV displacement mainly affects the zonal ozone pattern via dynamical–radiative feedbacks associated with changes in Brewer–Dobson circulation. By distinguishing SPV intensity and displacement, this study provides new insights into the physical pathways linking the winter SPV to spring ASO variability and highlights the important cross-seasonal potential indicator of vortex geometry in modulating ASO. 本研究利用1979/80–2023/24年的多套再分析资料, 发现冬季北极平流层极涡 (SPV) 强度与春季平流层臭氧 (ASO) 经向偶极型分布呈显著负相关, 而SPV位移变化则与ASO纬向分布模态呈显著负相关.这种关系在年际和年代际时间尺度上均表现稳健, 表明冬季SPV与春季ASO之间存在跨季节耦合.机制分析结果显示, SPV强度变化主要通过化学-辐射反馈调控ASO经向分布, 而SPV位移变化则主要通过调控剩余环流有关的辐射-动力反馈影响ASO纬向分布.
Zhang et al. (Wed,) studied this question.