Climate Insecurity as Political Production: Environmental Stress, Governance Failure, and Pastoralist-Farmer Violence in the Horn of Africa

Climate-related insecurity is often framed as an environmental outcome, yet violence emerges through political and institutional processes that shape how ecological stress is experienced and contested. The concept of politically produced climate insecurity captures how governance failure, territorial politics, and livelihood disruption transform environmental pressure into inter-communal conflict. Moving beyond a descriptive account, the manuscript situates climate security in the Horn of Africa—examining the interaction between ecological change and political authority—within broader debates on African political order, state formation, and institutional design. Focusing on Jonglei (South Sudan), Karamoja (Uganda), and Borena in the Somali Region (Ethiopia), the study addresses three interrelated questions: through which causal pathways declining rainfall and shrinking pastoral territory generate inter-community violence, and how environmental pressures compare to governance and economic drivers; how state interventions—including disarmament campaigns, administrative boundary decisions, and security force deployment—reshape conflict dynamics, often more decisively than ecological triggers; and what the policy consequences of climate security framing are, particularly whether it enhances conflict prevention or depoliticises violence in ways that deflect accountability and serve elite interests. Methodologically, the study combines geospatial analysis correlating CHIRPS rainfall data with ACLED conflict events across the Horn of Africa (2000–2023), subnational comparison of Jonglei, Karamoja, and Borena, political ecology fieldwork involving pastoralist and farmer communities, and analysis of IGAD climate security frameworks. The contribution lies in demonstrating how env