In 2025, the “grand compromise” forged in 2023 between the Thaksin-backed Pheu Thai Party (PT), conservative parties, and the military unraveled. Initially, this “deal” allowed PT to form a quasi-conservative coalition government and Thaksin to return from exile. The alliance quickly faced internal rivalries, reformist opposition, and intensifying tensions over Thaksin Shinawatra’s growing authority. The coalition collapsed in late August after critical missteps, culminating in the Constitutional Court’s removal of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra for ethics violations, followed by Thaksin’s imprisonment and financial penalties from legacy corruption cases. From September 2025, the conservative Bhumjathai Party led a minority government with supply and confidence from the progressive People’s Party. Disputes over reform led to the dissolution of the House of Representatives in mid-December, with elections set for February 2026. Meanwhile, economic stimulus measures failed to spur growth, and Thailand’s border dispute with Cambodia worsened.
Michael K. Connors (Sun,) studied this question.