The development of a green hydrogen industry is a strategic priority for Russia’s energy transition, yet the dynamics of scaling up this nascent sector remain poorly understood. This study uses agent-based modeling (ABM) to simulate the co-evolution of Russia’s electricity, hydrogen, and electrolyzer sectors over 2024–2050. The model incorporates three types of heterogeneous agents (power producers, hydrogen producers, and electrolyzer manufacturers) operating under bounded rationality. Four scenarios are examined across 50 Monte Carlo runs each, varying the electrolyzer learning rate (10–25%), willingness to pay for green hydrogen (2–6 /kg), and government support intensity. The results reveal an endogenous three-phase development pattern: Phase I (2024–2028) dominated by renewable capacity build-up reaching ~30 GW; Phase II (2029–2040) characterized by rapid electrolyzer deployment scaling to 14. 5 GW; and Phase III (2041–2050) marked by stabilization at approximately 30 GW producing 1. 12 Mt/year at 3. 1 /kg. Two critical thresholds are identified: renewable capacity exceeding 30–38 GW and low-cost electricity above 4–7 TWh/year. The electrolyzer learning rate emerges as the most influential parameter, while the pessimistic scenario confirms market failure without a green premium (WTP < 2 /kg). Strategic investment losses of 2–6 billion USD are necessary catalysts for industry emergence. Russia’s 2030 production target (0. 55 Mt) is found structurally infeasible under all scenarios.
Gomonov et al. (Mon,) studied this question.