The Alborz Mountain range, serving as the strategic water tower of the Iranian Plateau, is experiencing the accelerating impacts of climate change. Given the critical role of snow reserves in this region for water security, understanding the mechanisms of snow degradation in response to warming is essential. Aiming to investigate the divergent responses of snow cover and snow depth to extreme temperature indices, this study analyzes a 23-year time series (2001–2023) of ERA5-Land data and MODIS imagery across 11 elevation bands. To this end, trends and correlations among the Warm Spell Duration Index (WSDI), the Percentage of Warm Days (TX90p), the Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI), and Average Snow Depth (ASD) were assessed using the Modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) test, Generalized Linear Modeling (GLM), and Spearman’s rank correlation. The findings reveal elevational heterogeneity in the snow regime of the Alborz. Notably, the decline in spatial snow cover (NDSI) is primarily concentrated in the mid-elevation transition zone (2000 to 3000 m), whereas the reduction in snow depth (ASD) is a widespread phenomenon, observed even at high altitudes above 4000 m. A key innovation of this research is demonstrating the dominant role of heat frequency over heat duration; GLM results indicate that the TX90p index (frequency of warm days) has a much stronger negative correlation with the degradation of snow resources than WSDI. These results confirm the transition of the Alborz hydrological system toward instability, the upward shift in the snowline in the transition zone, and the invisible thinning of the snowpack at higher elevations.
Khaledi et al. (Mon,) studied this question.