Globally, rapid urbanisation occurs alongside stalled progress on transport-related Sustainable Development Goals. While urban form's impact on population health is documented, its specific effects on mobility and road safety in developing-country cities are largely absent from the literature. The spatial and socioeconomic diversity of Global South cities complicates safety analyses based solely on micro (segments) or macro (aggregate) scales. Consequently, the influence of meso-level urban fabric on road safety remains poorly understood. Two sets of stratified Generalised Linear Models at the meso level (districts and neighbourhoods) are developed; collision-prone zones are mapped, and a multilevel analysis is performed by integration with micro and macro level analysis from previous research. Road network spatial arrangement best predicted zonal risk, outperforming demographic, land use, and travel demand patterns. Four urban form types were identified, revealing both expected (riskier low-mixture areas) and counter-intuitive (riskier planned areas, indicating car-centric planning) results. Moreover, meso-level analysis identified areas missed by micro and macro approaches, revealing new intervention opportunities through urban redevelopment and land use policies. Overall, the findings indicate urban design drives road risk and emphasise the importance of the analysis level. This approach integrates road safety into urban planning research and practice and informs urban mobility governance.
Barrera-Jimenez et al. (Mon,) studied this question.
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