Abstract Prey abundance is a critical determinant of tiger Panthera tigris population recovery, necessitating robust long-term monitoring to assess prey population trends and inform management interventions. We estimate the density trend of principal tiger prey populations (chital Axis axis, chousingha Tetracerus quadricornis , nilgai Boselaphus tragocamelus , sambar Rusa unicolor and wild pig Sus scrofa ), in Kawal Tiger Reserve, Telangana, India, for 2010–2022. Using 28 systematically placed 4 km line transects, we observed an increase in the chital population, whereas the populations of sambar, nilgai and chousingha remained stable. The wild pig population fluctuated over this period. Despite Kawal’s designation as a tiger reserve in 2012, which enhanced protection, there is no resident tiger population in the Reserve. In the last decade, 15 tigers (of which only two were females) dispersed to Kawal from a nearby population in Maharashtra. Using prey availability models, we predicted that prey in the Reserve’s 893 km 2 core area could support > 30 tigers in 2022. However, to establish a tiger population with > 30 individuals may require the reintroduction or assisted dispersal of females and enhanced connectivity with neighbouring protected areas that have source populations. This study highlights the critical importance of long-term prey monitoring for informing evidence-based conservation strategies to restore Kawal as a viable habitat for tigers.
Siddiqui et al. (Thu,) studied this question.