This study empirically analyzes the causal relationship between Korea’s total fertility rate and population density using long-term time series data from 1960 to 2024. Applying ARDL-ECM and Granger causality tests, the results reveal a long-run equilibrium between the two variables, with population density exerting a unidirectional influence on fertility. A 1% increase in population density leads to an approximate 4.26% decline in fertility in the long run, indicating a strong negative effect. Error correction analysis further shows that when disequilibrium occurs, adjustments are made at a rate of about 17.3% per year. These findings suggest that overcoming Korea’s low fertility crisis requires not only cash support policies but also spatial restructuring, such as easing metropolitan concentration and promoting balanced regional development.
Sung-Hoon Park (Sun,) studied this question.