Introduction This study examines the interplay between internal reforms and external shocks in shaping China’s export performance from 1960 to 2024. Methods Using structural break analysis via the Bai-Perron methodology, we identify key turning points in China’s exports relative to GDP and evaluate the relative impact of domestic policy reforms—such as post-1978 market liberalization and the “new normal” growth framework—and major external shocks, including WTO accession, the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Results The findings reveal a dual mechanism: internal reforms establish structural capacity and long-term export potential, while external shocks exert stronger and more immediate effects on the timing and magnitude of structural breaks. Comparative analysis with Japan, South Korea, and Singapore shows shared regional sensitivities to global shocks, though domestic policy timing and intensity remain idiosyncratic. Discussion Overall, the study highlights the critical interaction of governance, institutional adaptation, and global economic forces in shaping China’s export trajectory and structural evolution.
Jhon Valdiglesias (Wed,) studied this question.