Driven by global warming, increasing extreme precipitation events (EPEs) threaten low-lying coastal ecosystems. This study focused on the contemporary Yellow River Delta and established a continuous framework linking extreme precipitation, groundwater, and vegetation, based on long-term extreme precipitation changes during 1960–2022 and vegetation dynamics during 2001–2022. Using regional precipitation records, groundwater observations from 16 monitoring wells, and five-day kernel normalized difference vegetation index (kNDVI) data, we compared two EPEs that exceeded the 99th-percentile wet-day precipitation threshold and had complete precipitation–groundwater–vegetation observations. Our findings reveal that: (1) extreme precipitation was intensified in the study area, with an R99p trend of 19.1 mm/10 a; (2) vegetation disturbance was stronger and more persistent after the 2019 Lekima event, with a mean post-event kNDVI anomaly of −12.8%, whereas the 2022 Chaba event produced a weaker, later, and more spatially limited negative response; (3) groundwater response was also stronger in 2019, as the proportion of wells with above-surface water levels reached 43.8%, compared with 12.5% in 2022, indicating more extensive and longer-lasting inundation; (4) the shallowest post-event groundwater depth was significantly negatively correlated with kNDVI anomalies (r = 0.579, p < 0.001), and during the 2019 event, the kNDVI fell below about −17% when surface inundation lasted for 6 days. These results indicate that groundwater is a key hydrological link connecting extreme precipitation and vegetation response. This study provides new evidence for the identification and adaptive management of ecological risks in low-lying coastal deltas.
Ji et al. (Tue,) studied this question.
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