Coherence Between Climate and Land Use Polices of the European Union, Brazil, and Indonesia: A Primer to Analyze Potential GHG Leakage

ABSTRACT Incoherence between national land use policies may weaken climate mitigation efforts by creating conditions under which agricultural and forestry production and GHG emissions are displaced across borders (leakage). Coherence depends on constellations and prioritization of national policy aims in land use (production) and climate (conservation). We assess policy coherence in the land use sectors of major agriculture and forestry trading partners—EU, Brazil, and Indonesia and discuss whether this can possibly cause international production displacement and GHG emission leakage. We selected top‐level national policies in the land use and climate policy domains of the three jurisdictions, coded and rated policy aims, and compared relationships of production and conservation aims. Results show that EU prioritizes conservation over production; Brazil also emphasizes conservation, though to a lesser extent; Indonesia has a balanced ratio between production and conservation goals. We conclude that differing policy priorities may indeed encourage shifts in production from the EU to countries like Brazil and Indonesia, potentially leading to GHG emission leakage and raising concerns about the ecological integrity of the EU Green Deal. We recommend integrating leakage impact assessments into policy design and identifying ways to better align production and conservation goals domestically in countries to prevent displacement and leakage.