Economic Volatility, Structural Fragility, and the Prediction of State Failure_ A Machine Learning Approach with Hydro-Economic Stress Indicators. pdf

Key Points

• This research aims to predict state failure by integrating hydro-economic stress indicators with machine learning techniques.
• Applied novel machine learning methods to analyze hydro-economic stress indicators.
• Evaluated prediction accuracy over a three-year horizon.
• Compared the effectiveness of environmental pressures and economic vulnerabilities to traditional metrics.
• Achieved a prediction accuracy of 73.1%.
• Identified economic structural vulnerabilities as stronger predictors than traditional institutional metrics.
• Revealed the importance of environmental pressures in state failure prediction.