Friend-Shoring Versus Near-Shoring: A Counterfactual Network Analysis of Differential Impacts on China’s Position in Global Value Chains

The U.S. strategies of “friend-shoring” and “near-shoring,” aimed at enhancing supply chain autonomy, are profoundly restructuring global production networks. This study empirically evaluates the impact of these strategies on China’s factor-intensive industries. Utilizing the Asian Development Bank Multi-Regional Input-Output database, we constructed a Global Industrial Value Chain Backbone Network and applied the X-index Filtering Algorithm to identify core trade relationships. Policy impacts were quantified by comparing degree, betweenness, and closeness centralities between null and counterfactual models. The results indicate that “friend-shoring” exerts a significant “squeeze effect” on China, with resource-intensive industries facing severe decoupling risks that cascade into supporting services. Conversely, the impact of “near-shoring” remains limited, as Chinese firms mitigate trade diversion through strategic overseas investment. Scenario analysis further reveals that while new trade remedies targeting re-exports may bolster emerging hubs like Vietnam and Mexico in the short term, they increase the topological distance of global production networks, leading to a systemic decline in efficiency. These findings provide critical quantitative evidence regarding the evolution and systemic risks of global value chains under geopolitical intervention.