Climate variability continues to threaten agriculture in the Volta River Basin of West Africa, a region highly sensitive to temperature, rainfall, and land-use change. Using satellite products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) , Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), and European Space Agency (ESA) satellite missions (2000–2023), this study conducted a spatiotemporal assessment of land surface temperature, evapotranspiration (ET), and the Crop Water Stress Index (CWSI). CWSI was estimated using a land surface temperature–vegetation index (LST–NDVI) triangular approach to evaluate vegetation water stress across the basin. The results reveal basin-wide warming, with the strongest temperature increases occurring in the southern parts of the basin, while persistent vegetation decline was observed in northern and central zones, where vegetation greenness ranged from −0.143 to 0.769. The most favorable crop conditions occurred in areas with higher rainfall and vegetation cover, reflected in higher evapotranspiration and lower crop-water stress, whereas northern regions exhibited high crop-water stress (mean CWSI ≈ 0.975; range 0.955–0.996). Evapotranspiration showed strong positive relationships with rainfall (r ≈ 0.99) and vegetation greenness (NDVI; r ≈ 0.96), and a strong negative relationship with crop-water stress (r ≈ −0.96). Land-cover change analysis revealed a 74.76% decline in wetlands , a 51.50% reduction in cropland, and a 58.05% increase in built-up areas, contributing to increasing thermal and hydrological stress across the basin. These findings highlight the need for ecosystem restoration, climate-smart agriculture, and adaptive land-use planning to enhance agricultural resilience and safeguard food security across the Volta Basin. • Satellite-based analysis using MODIS, CHIRPS, and ESA datasets revealed strong relationships among evapotranspiration, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), rainfall, and crop water stress in the Volta Basin. • A pronounced warming trend and vegetation decline were detected between 2000 and 2023, particularly in northern and central regions. • High crop-water stress (CWSI ≈ 0.975) corresponded with low rainfall and reduced vegetation cover in semi-arid northern areas. • Land cover change analysis revealed a 74.76% decline in wetlands and a 58.05% increase in built-up surfaces, intensifying climate-related stress in the basin. • These findings underscore the urgency of climate-smart agriculture, ecosystem restoration, and adaptive land-use planning to enhance climate resilience in West Africa.
Olawoyin et al. (Fri,) studied this question.