ABSTRACT The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are typically tracked through level‐based dashboards, yet recent episodes show that progress can unravel quickly when food and energy prices surge, climate stress intensifies, conflict disrupts service delivery, and global financial conditions tighten in the same window. This paper develops an SDG stress‐testing framework and proposes a Fuzzy Polycrisis Vulnerability Index (FPVI) that measures expected losses in SDG achievement under severe but plausible joint shock paths. The approach maps a set of core SDG indicators into comparable fuzzy achievement scores on the unit interval, estimates their dynamic responses to polycrisis drivers using panel local projections, and constructs transparent scenario paths with explicit persistence. Global drivers are identified through exposure‐adjusted shocks that exploit cross‐country heterogeneity while retaining time fixed effects, so that common global movements do not mechanically drive the estimates. Scenario‐implied losses are aggregated into FPVI values with decompositions by SDG dimension, shock channel, and horizon, and uncertainty is propagated from the estimated responses to confidence bands for both index values and country ranks, reducing over‐interpretation of small rank differences. An empirical application for emerging and developing economies reports a focused reading for the MENA region, including Tunisia and Saudi Arabia, and shows that similar SDG levels can conceal markedly different resilience profiles driven by exposure, sensitivity, and buffer capacity. The FPVI complements SDG scorecards by adding a stress‐test lens that supports prioritisation, resilience diagnostics, and scenario‐based evaluation of policy buffers.
Firas Kaabi (Thu,) studied this question.