Should a golfer aim at the hole, just past it, or well beyond it? I answer with a decision-theoretic model of straight, level putting. Line and pace errors generate a bivariate resting distribution, capture physics determines whether the ball falls, and a Bellman continuation value prices misses. I calibrate it for tour, scratch, 10-handicap, and 20-handicap golfers. BroadieShin2014 provide a tour-level angular benchmark. Because the moments are aggregate rather than slope- or read-conditioned, I combine green-reading and stroke-direction error into a single lateral dispersion channel. The main aim result is that the expected-strokes optimum is forgiving: at short and medium distances it is nearly the make-rate optimum in expected strokes, while three-putt avoidance becomes a genuinely different objective when miss length dominates. I use the model to value putting skills. At HCP20, tour putting saves 5.7 strokes per round, but 20-handicap putting costs a tour player 6.8; at lower amateur tiers the forward and reverse transfers are nearly symmetric. On straight, level greens, most amateur-to-tour value comes from pace control; line gains concentrate at 3--5 feet and grow with approach quality. The paper quantifies optimal aim first, then uses that model to assess the value of putting skills.
Daniel A. B. Dias (Thu,) studied this question.