Efficacy of the Shear Stress Pattern Computed in Coronary Artery Reconstruction Models With and Without Side Branches in Predicting Plaque Progression

BACKGROUND: The incorporation of side branches in vessel geometry influences wall shear stress (WSS) distribution. However, complete vessel reconstruction is time-consuming, and there is no evidence that its WSS estimations better predict atherosclerotic disease progression compared with the output of the conventional single-vessel reconstruction (SVR). METHODS: Patients who had baseline and 1-year follow-up intravascular ultrasound imaging (n=40 vessels), and patients with neoatherosclerotic lesions (n=13 vessels) on optical coherence tomography were included. All the studied vessels had at least one side branch with a diameter >1 mm; 3-dimensional complete vessel reconstruction and SVR were performed, and the time-averaged WSS and multidirectional WSS were computed. The performance of both methods in predicting disease progression in intravascular ultrasound and optical coherence tomography models was assessed. RESULTS: <0.001) and influenced the multidirectional WSS distribution. In native segments, complete vessel reconstruction-derived WSS metrics demonstrated superior predictive performance for disease progression-defined as lumen area reduction and plaque burden increase-compared with SVR, as evidenced by improved out-of-sample accuracy (leave-one-out information criterion: 429 versus 551), discrimination (C statistic: 0.725 versus 0.651), calibration (Brier score: 0.172 versus 0.226), and explained variance (27.8% versus 20.7%). Consistent findings were observed in stented segments, where complete vessel reconstruction-derived WSS metrics more accurately predicted neointimal proliferation than SVR-derived metrics. CONCLUSIONS: Incorporating side branches into vessel reconstruction influences WSS distribution and enables more accurate prediction of atherosclerotic disease progression in native and stented segments than SVR.