What does this research mean for the field?

A composite index of economic waste heat, solar radiation, and cosmic energy does not significantly predict short-term gold returns, while post-2023 AI data center expansion decouples waste heat from conventional economic cycles. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.INCREMENTAL. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

What question did this study set out to answer?

This research aims to explore the relationships between economic waste heat, solar radiation, and gold returns.

May 20, 2026Open Access

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Tendo Economics v3.1: Three-Variable Physical Model — Economic Waste Heat, Solar Radiation, and Cosmic Energy as Composite Timing Index

Key Points

This research aims to explore the relationships between economic waste heat, solar radiation, and gold returns.
Extended physical model introduced in Tendo Economics v3.0
Analysis of correlations between composite economic signals and gold returns using historical data from 60 events
Exploratory findings on structural changes post-2023 regarding data center waste heat
E_total composite showed a correlation of r = -0.076 with 72h gold return, indicating no significant relationship
Temperature anomaly correlated with gold return at r = -0.132, aligning with established theories
Golden Condition demonstrated a 75.0% win rate over 4 observations, suggesting potential predictive value in economic indicators

Abstract

Extended version of Tendo Economics v3. 0 (DOI: 10. 5281/zenodo. 20263290), adding Appendix D: Three-Variable Physical Model. New findings: Eₜotal composite (Signalness 40% + TempNorm 30% + Solar 30%) vs 72h gold return: r = -0. 076 (not significant — null result reported honestly) Temperature anomaly vs gold return: r = -0. 132, consistent with Recession-Gold-Temperature hypothesis Golden Condition (KOKU ≥100 days + Sig ≥0. 6): N=4, win rate 75. 0% CI: 19. 8%-95. 7% — exploratory only AI infrastructure anomaly: data center expansion decouples waste heat from conventional economic cycles post-2023 May 18, 2026 Eₜotal (0. 821) exceeds all 60 historical observations — structurally unprecedented Recession-Gold-Temperature mechanism: economic contraction reduces waste heat AND drives gold demand via common cause (risk-off) Raw data (60 GOLD events, temperature, gold prices) included as JSON. Pre-registered CSS Event prediction (May 25-30, 2026) remains active. All findings exploratory. No causal claims. Not investment advice.

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Cite This Study

Yoshimitsu Katayama (Mon,) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a0d4fd2f03e14405aa9b470 https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20269155

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