The One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) introduced several modifications to the Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs including higher reference prices, revised payment formulas, a "higher-of" provision, and expanded base acreage. This brief quantifies the marginal impact of each provision by computing payments under five policy scenarios using historical FSA data for all covered commodities from 2019 to 2025. Results indicate that the OBBB provisions would roughly triple cumulative ARC/PLC outlays relative to the 2018 Farm Bill, with formula and reference price changes accounting for the largest share of the increase. Impacts vary substantially across commodities.
Dylan Turner (Thu,) studied this question.