Acantholyda posticalis (Hymenoptera: Pamphiliidae) is a forestry pest in China. They primarily infest pine trees, causing serious ecological damage. The research aims to identify the key environmental factors influencing the suitable distribution area of Acantholyda posticalis and their optimal conditions, and investigate the impacts of climate change and possible impacts of its main host plants on the distribution of Acantholyda posticalis. By utilizing the MaxEnt model, we predict the potential distribution of Acantholyda posticalis and its main host plant, Pinus tabuliformis, under current and future climatic conditions. The results indicate that under current climatic conditions, the suitable areas for Acantholyda posticalis in China are extensive in the Loess Plateau and North China Plain regions and have extensive overlapping area with the distribution of Pinus tabuliformis. The dominant environmental factors influencing the distribution of suitable areas for Acantholyda posticalis are the Minimum Temperature of the Coldest Month, Precipitation of the Wettest Quarter, Altitude and Temperature Seasonality. Under the SSP126 and SSP585 climate scenarios for the period 2081–2100, the overall suitable area for Acantholyda posticalis is projected to follow a decreasing trend, exhibiting a tendency to extend toward the southern and eastern regions. Meanwhile, the moderately and highly suitable areas are more concentrated and extensive. The research provides a theoretical foundation for the control of Acantholyda posticalis and the protection of the ecological environment.
Zhao et al. (Sat,) studied this question.