This working paper introduces Conditional Economic Order Theory (CEOT), a conceptual and diagnostic framework for analyzing how economic gain becomes durable order or deteriorates into fragility, domination, or crisis. CEOT argues that profit is necessary but insufficient: economic success becomes durable only when gain can become repeatable strategy, institutionalized capacity, credible cooperation, and renewable order. The paper develops CEOT through concepts including Trust Capital, Distrust Tax, Accumulated Optionality, Fair-Enough Distribution, Renewal Capacity, and Domination Risk. It distinguishes trust-building profit from trust-consuming profit and provides preliminary, source-linked, author-coded comparative case evidence involving J&J Tylenol, Toyota unintended acceleration, Volkswagen Dieselgate, and the Takata airbag crisis. This release is a working paper and research-framework publication. It is conceptual and diagnostic, with preliminary source-linked evidence. It does not claim statistical validation, independent replication, or final empirical proof.
Htet Ko Ko Naing (Sun,) studied this question.