The transition to low-carbon hydrogen is recognized as a priority decarbonization pathway, yet the risk profiles of hydrogen projects remain poorly characterized for non-Western, resource-rich, and geopolitically constrained economies. This study develops and applies a structured expert-based risk mapping framework for low-carbon hydrogen production in Russia. The framework integrates three procedural steps: (1) identification and classification of 21 risk factors across seven thematic groups based on systematic literature analysis; (2) construction of a directed interdependency matrix (7 × 7, ordinal scale 0–2) via structured expert elicitation (n = 10, February 2026); and (3) probability–impact prioritization using the P × S scoring heuristic (both axes on a 1–5 scale, per ISO 31000:2018). Results reveal three critical risk factors (P × S Score ≥ 20): high cost of capital and restricted access to external financing (Score = 24, P = 5, S = 5), dependence on imported electrolyzer components (Score = 20, P = 4, S = 4), and insufficient export infrastructure (Score = 20, P = 5, S = 4). The interdependency matrix identifies economic and financial risks as the primary “accumulator” of systemic influence, receiving maximum incoming impact from all other six groups. Regulatory risks occupy a medium position but exert disproportionate cascading effects on technology choice and project economics. The framework is explicitly designed for transferability to other resource-abundant, capital-constrained economies (Kazakhstan, Iran, Algeria), with structural adaptation conditions specified. Findings are relevant for policymakers, investors, and multilateral stakeholders shaping hydrogen value chains in non-Western contexts.
Revinova et al. (Mon,) studied this question.