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Objectives: This study aimed to investigate the potential impact of an excise tax on sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) in Egypt-specifically, a tax intended to raise consumer prices by 20%-on health outcomes and healthcare expenditure. Study design: Epidemiologic-economic modelling study. Methods: We used a proportional multi-state life table model to project the health of the current Egyptian population over their remaining lifespan, using data from both Egyptian and international sources. Results: A tax that increases consumer prices of SSBs by 20%, in line with World Health Organization recommendations, could yield substantial health improvements for the people of Egypt. Over 25 years, it could prevent 350,000 (95% uncertainty interval: 320,000 - 390,000) cases of obesity, 250,000 (196,000 - 324,000) cases of T2DM, 56,000 (43,000 - 72,000) cases of heart disease, 39,000 (32,000 - 46,000) cases of stroke, 2700 (2000 - 3300) new cases of cancer, and 30.9 (19.7 - 42.8) million instances of tooth decay. Over the lifetime of the 2019 population, the tax could result in an additional 1.6 million health-adjusted life years (1.3-1.9 million). Over the first 25 years, healthcare cost savings are estimated at USD 1.8 billion (EGP 30 billion). The most significant impact of the tax on body mass would be observed among younger Egyptians, with women benefiting slightly more than men. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that taxing SSBs could produce significant health benefits and healthcare cost savings in Egypt.
Dalugoda et al. (Thu,) studied this question.