Comparing the effects of regulating new genomic techniques on investment decisions in the European Union

Abstract We examine the economic impact of regulating new genomic techniques on investment decisions in the EU. Using a real options model, we compare five major regulatory options (nine including sub-options) with the status quo and analyse their effects on plant breeders’ investments. Using the current authorization process for genetically modified organisms for NGTs presents a high investment barrier for companies. The findings indicate that all alternative five options offer opportunities to reduce investment hurdles, depending on the design of the authorization process. Our model and its calibration serve as an example for further advancing the application of real options for regulatory policy analysis.