Positive NPV Is Not Enough: A Note on Viability-Based Maritime Capital Decisions

This short conceptual note argues that conventional investment analysis is incomplete in irreversible maritime capital systems. A positive net present value may indicate economic attractiveness, but it does not prove that the firm remains capable of surviving if the future deviates from the base case. Using shipping as the central laboratory, the note introduces the principle of viability before optimization: a capital commitment should be considered admissible only if, after commitment, the firm retains sufficient liquidity, time, optionality and exit capacity to remain inside its survival domain. The note forms part of The Irreversibility Trap research program on maritime finance, capital risk, decarbonization and strategic optionality.