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Climate change is projected to substantially reduce and reorganize climatically suitable habitat for the greater naked-tailed armadillo ( Cabassous tatouay ), a fossorial Neotropical mammal. We applied ecological niche modeling using 220 spatially filtered occurrence records and multiple emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) to estimate current and future climatic suitability across the species’ range. Historical projections identified approximately 1.94 million km² of suitable habitat. Under future scenarios, suitable areas decline consistently, reaching losses of up to 54% under high-emission pathways. Reductions were proportionally greater in central and northern portions of the distribution, particularly within brazilian warmer and semi-arid regions, whereas southern areas retained comparatively higher suitability, resulting in spatial concentration and increasing fragmentation of remaining favorable environments. No newly suitable areas were projected, indicating that future range dynamics are driven entirely by habitat loss rather than expansion. Climatically suitable habitat within protected areas also declined in absolute terms, although its proportional representation increased due to overall contraction. These patterns suggest rising climatic exposure and potential spatial isolation of populations, with implications for long-term persistence. By identifying regions likely to retain suitability under future conditions, this study provides spatially explicit evidence to support adaptive conservation planning, including the maintenance of ecological connectivity and the strategic alignment of protected-area networks with projected climatic refugia.
Fontes et al. (Wed,) studied this question.