Temperature‐Driven Dynamics of Tomato Yellow Leaf Curl Virus: A Mathematical Modeling Approach

Purpose Tomato yellow leaf curl virus (TYLCV), transmitted by whiteflies, is a highly destructive pathogen that threatens tomato production worldwide. Temperature plays a crucial role in determining how tomato plants respond to TYLCV infection, primarily because it influences the activity and population dynamics of insect vectors. This study is aimed at exploring how variations in temperature affect the transmission dynamics of TYLCV among tomato plants. Methods We formulate and analyze a mathematical model for the spread of TYLCV that incorporates temperature‐dependent variation in virus inoculation and acquisition rates. We compute and examine the basic reproduction numbers without temperature variation ( R 01 ) and with temperature variation ( R 02 ). In addition, numerical simulations are performed to investigate the impact of temperature on the disease dynamics. Results We show that warmer climates or rising seasonal temperature exacerbate outbreak severity and persistence. Besides, we find that if R 02 < 1, then R 01 < 1 automatically holds, leading to a disease‐free equilibrium at higher temperatures. This implies that controlling the disease is possible when R 02 is less than unity. However, R 01 < 1 does not necessarily guarantee that R 02 < 1, which means disease eradication may not occur under varying temperature conditions. Sensitivity analysis reveals the influence of critical parameters on TYLCV dynamics. Notably, a backward bifurcation can occur, where both the disease‐free and endemic equilibria coexist, even when R 01 < 1 under increasing temperatures. Conclusion The disease can persist in tomato and whitefly populations even when R 01 < 1. Thus, achieving R 01 < 1 is not sufficient for disease eradication. However, effective management is possible if temperature‐dependent reproduction number R 02 is reduced below unity. These findings offer insights that may aid in developing more effective strategies for controlling TYLCV. MSC2010 Classification 92B05, 92D25, 92D30